Answer :
The probability that a blue poker chip was transferred from box A to box B, given that the coin just chosen from box B is red is 0.517.
Probability can be defined as the ratio of the number of favorable outcomes to the total number of outcomes of an event. For an experiment having 'n' number of outcomes, the number of favorable outcomes can be denoted by x. The formula to calculate the probability of an event is as follows.
Probability(Event) = Favorable Outcomes/Total Outcomes = x/n
Let A be the event in which coin chosen from box B is red.
Let B be the event in which blue poker chip transferred.
Probability of choosing a red coin:
a) when a red coin is chosen from box A = [tex]\frac{7}{10}[/tex] × [tex]\frac{4}{9}[/tex]
b) when a blue coin is chosen from box A = [tex]\frac{6}{10}[/tex] × [tex]\frac{5}{9}[/tex]
∴ P(A) = [tex]\frac{7}{10}[/tex] × [tex]\frac{4}{9}[/tex] + [tex]\frac{6}{10}[/tex] × [tex]\frac{5}{9}[/tex] = 0.6444
When blue chip is transferred and red coin chosen:
Probability = [tex]\frac{6}{10}[/tex] × [tex]\frac{5}{9}[/tex]
∴ P(A∩B) = [tex]\frac{6}{10}[/tex] × [tex]\frac{5}{9}[/tex] = 0.33
Now, the probability that a blue poker chip was transferred from box A to box B, given that the coin just chosen from box B is red is:
P(B|A) = P(A∩B)/P(A) = 0.33/0.644 = 0.517
Thus, the probability that a blue poker chip was transferred from box A to box B, given that the coin just chosen from box B is red is 0.517.
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