if you're estimating the bias of a coin that came up heads 10 times and tails 20 times, 0.333 is the maximum probability estimate for the bias of this coin .
The maximum likelihood estimate for the bias of a coin is the ratio of the number of times it has come up heads to the total number of outcomes. In this case, the maximum likelihood estimate is 10/30, or 0.333. This is the most likely bias of the coin, rounded to the nearest 0.001. if you're estimating the bias of a coin that came up heads 10 times and tails 20 times, 0.333 is the maximum probability estimate for the bias of this coin .
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