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when there are few data, we often fall back on personal probability. there had been just 2424 space shuttle launches, all successful, before the challenger disaster in january 1986. the shuttle program management thought the chances of such a failure were only 11 in 100,000.in 100,000. suppose 11 in 100,000100,000 is a correct estimate of the chance of such a failure. if a shuttle was launched every day, about how many failures would one expect in 300 years?300 years? round your answer to the nearest whole number.



Answer :

If a shuttle was launched every day, about 1 failures would one expect in 300 years.

What is estimate?

Finding an estimate or approximation—a value that can be used for a purpose despite the possibility of incomplete, uncertain, or unstable input data—is the process of estimation. Despite this, the value is still useful because it was created using the most up-to-date data.

Here,

There are about 110,000 days in 300 years, so the expected number of failures is about 10/11 ≈ 1.

This assumes the launch conditions are identical for each of the launches, or that whatever variation there might be has no effect on the probability. These are bad assumptions.

If a shuttle was launched every day, one might anticipate one failure every 300 years.

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