4.1 (Probability, Law of Large Numbers, Simulation)
1. The MARTA claims that their 5:30 am Red Line Train from Airport Station to College Park
Station has a probability of .95 of arriving on time. Assume for now that this claim is
true.
a. Explain what the probability .95 means in context.
b. If the 5:30a.m. train has arrived on time 6 days in a row, what is the probability
that it will arrive on time the next day? Why?
c. A student takes the 5:30am train to school 22 days in a month. They are
surprised when the train is late to Airport Station on 9 out of 22 days. Should
they be surprised? Describe how you would create a simulation that to estimate
the probability to see if their claim is true.