Global Warming Simulations Models of global warming can be used to predict how much the Earth will warm under different greenhouse gas emission scenarios. For this assignment, you will read some background material and operate the C-ROADS Climate Simulator, written by a research group at MIT. To begin, go to https://www.climate interactive.org/tools/c-roads/ read the basic material on the simulation and watch the video. You may want to come back to this video on how to use the simulator if you have questions. I want you to be able to explore the capabilities of this simulator to create different climate conditions so this activity is more about trying and testing hypotheses than coming up with a specific answer. Please go to the C-ROADS simulator at https://c-roads.climate interactive.org/ to begin your exploration. The initial page shows the "business as usual" situation for the climate. Many scientists agree that to avoid dramatic changes to our climate, we should limit temperature increases to 2 degrees Celsius (and leveling off or decreasing!) by 2100. Clearly the "business as usual" scenario does not achieve this. Part 1: Explore the simulator and adjust the peak year, reductions begin year, and % decline per year (don't adjust anything else yet) to identify values that will bring the temperature in 2100 below 2 degrees Celsius (it is ok to switch to the 3 region version). Please identify the values you used to keep the Earth below the "danger zone" of 2 degrees Celsius increase. How difficult does this seem to be and what do you think would be required in the US to achieve this? Part 2: Fortunately, nature can do some of the work for us when more plant biomass grows. Reset the simulation in the Simulation menu. Now adjust the Prevent Deforestation and Promote Aforestation options to increase the number of trees being grown and therefore absorbing Carbon dioxide. Illustrate the numbers you chose and explain why you chose these numbers by region. What would be the consequence of decreasing timber harvests/deforestation or increasing forest cover for other aspects of society in each region? For instance, Connecticut in the 1800s was as much as 80% deforested and is now about 80% forest. Is there room in Connecticut to see further afforestation? Where else could this be done in the US? Part 3: One of the advantages of this simulator is that you can look at other factors. Go to the Graphs menu and play around with some of the options. After a bit of exploration, go to the Impacts option and select Sea Level Rise. How does the "business as usual" model compare with the model results you found in Part 1 in terms of how much sea level is expected to rise?
