Read the following essay, which lacks a conclusion:
Most people are very bad at understanding probability, which is the chance of something happening, or of
one event being related to another. That's why so many of us are more scared of flying than of driving or think
vaccines cause autism. When "the odds" involve many possibilities, our hunches about how the world is
supposed to work are generally wrong.
If you've taken a statistics class, your teacher has probably proved this to you with The Birthday Problem. If
you are in a class of twenty-five people, what do you think the chances are that two of them have the same
birthday? Most of us would guess it there's a really small probability, but actually, there's a greater than 50:50
chance. We think the odds are low because on our own, we rarely meet someone with our birthday. We don't
consider that each of twenty-five people all checking with each of the other twenty-four people makes the
coincidence of at least one shared birthday many times more likely,